NEW YORK, July 6, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased to 106.69 in June, from an upwardly revised reading of 106.90 in May. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

“The ETI declined a second consecutive month in June, suggesting slower payroll growth ahead,” said Jannik Schulz, Economic Research Associate, The Conference Board. “However, recent data show persistent labor market resilience as firms continue to limit hiring and separations, while few workers are quitting.”

The share of consumers who reported “jobs are hard to get”—an ETI component from the Consumer Confidence Survey®— rose to 22.5% in June, its highest level since January 2021. Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased for the second month in a row to 222,000 in June, the largest monthly average recorded so far this year.

“Consumers’ pessimistic hiring outlook fueled much of June’s weakness in the ETI,” added Schulz, “which is consistent with the prevailing ‘low hire, low fire’ labor market environment. Nonetheless, the number of people on non-farm payrolls remains elevated and has been ticking higher in recent months. Meanwhile, the number of initial jobless claims also increased in June. Although unemployment claims remain near historical lows, the ETI interprets the increase as a negative signal for the labor market ahead.”

Positive contributions to the ETI were led by the share of small firms reporting that jobs are ‘not able to be filled right now’, which jumped by 3 percentage points to 32% in June, up from an unexpectedly low reading of 29% in May. The share of involuntary part-time workers continued to ease, falling to 17.1% in June from 17.4% in May. Employment in the temporary help services industry increased again in June and rose by 47,800 in the first half of the year. Job openings remain elevated, contributing positively to the ETI for the third consecutive month.

Ranked by the magnitude of their contributions to the ETI in June 2026, three of the ETI’s eight components contributed negatively: The Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find ‘Jobs Hard to Get’, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales. The following five components contributed positively: The Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, the Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Job Openings, and Industrial Production.

The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey^®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS) ⴕ
• Job Openings (BLS)*
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for the two most recent months
ⴕ Note missing October 2025 value for Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time Workers estimated using linear interpolation

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

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SOURCE The Conference Board